Disclaimer: All rants have minimal editing and a general disregard for flow
Mark my words, Pennsylvania is the only state that will decide this election. The special nature of this election has flipped demographics upside down. In this Presidential election, Trump will do better with white blue collar middle class Americans. In particular, independents that fit into this group will break Trump’s way. Florida and Ohio are typically swing states, but Trump is already running well above Hillary in those states. The strong senate campaigns of Rubio and Portman will solidify Trump’s win in those states.
Winning Ohio and Florida typically ensures the election, but this is not the case this presidential election. Trump still needs to win one more populous swing state to beat Hillary Clinton. Pennsylvania, the state that will tip the election, is his only real chance. PA has leaned Democratic in presidential elections for many years and urban Philadelphia is reliably blue. Trump can appeal to blue collar workers throughout rural PA that feel left behind by the Obama economy. Usually Pennsylvania is a swing state that has a slight left leaning but in this election it may truly reflect the national average. The Senate race in PA between McGinty and Toomey confirms that Pennsylvania is the most vital swing state this election. In an average of the latest polls McGinty holds a 0.2% advantage and that makes this senate race the closest in the country. The next president will win Pennsylvania because that is the only viable pathway for both candidates.